Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump ceasing to be President before July 31, 2026, is the real-world event underpinning this market, where a 1% crowd-implied probability suggests resignation or removal is viewed as highly unlikely. Historically, no sitting US president has ever resigned or been permanently removed via impeachment since the Constitution’s ratification; Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 only after facing near-certain impeachment, while Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Trump himself were impeached but acquitted by the Senate[2][3]. Trump’s unique legal history—including being the first president convicted of felony crimes after leaving office and twice impeached yet acquitted—frames how traders should interpret current odds: past attempts to remove him failed decisively, and his 2024 Supreme Court immunity ruling further complicates prosecution pathways[1][6].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would monitor specific catalysts: formal announcements of resignation, House impeachment votes, Senate trial outcomes, or invocation of the 25th Amendment for permanent incapacity. Key dependencies include Trump’s upcoming sentencing dates, ongoing federal or state prosecutions, and congressional schedules for the 2025–2026 session. Recent reporting from The Wall Street Journal notes Trump and allies are actively discussing plans to expunge his impeachments from official records, indicating a strategic effort to neutralise past political liabilities[5]. Traders should also track Supreme Court rulings on immunity scope, as lower courts still lack clear guidance on distinguishing official versus unofficial acts[6]. Conditional orders could be triggered by any House vote exceeding 215 members or a Senate conviction vote surpassing 67, though current political dynamics suggest neither threshold is near.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.