Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 2 Winner | 48% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Match O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Match O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova | 42% |
| Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Set 1 Winner | 37% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, monterrey open: mayar sherif vs oleksandra oliynykova stands at 50% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Mayar Sherif and Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Monterrey Open, originally scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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