Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 22.5 | 1% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 23.5 | 1% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Game Spread +/-3.5 | 1% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to china open, qualification: valeria savinykh vs irene burillo escorihuela. This market refers to the tennis match between Valeria Savinykh and Irene Burillo Escorihuela in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market …
Methodology
We track China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade China Open, Qualification: Valeria Savinykh vs Irene… on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →