National Bank Open: Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova

Platform comparison

Market context

Jessica Pegula’s match with Kamilla Rakhimova at the National Bank Open is live and, by the available score feeds, has already been interrupted by rain after Pegula took the opening set and moved ahead again in the second. That matters for settlement logic: once play has started, a suspension is not the same as cancellation, so a delayed finish still resolves to the player who ultimately advances, while an abandoned or tie outcome would force the market towards 50-50. [1][8]

The 99% crowd-implied price is consistent with the underlying matchup data. Pegula is the higher-ranked player, listed around world No. 3, while Rakhimova is around No. 83, and independent stat pages show no prior main-tour head-to-head between them. Pegula’s recent record is materially stronger overall and on hard courts, and she has a strong history at this event, including multiple deep runs and title wins, whereas Rakhimova has struggled against top-10 opposition and has not advanced deep in WTA 1000 draws as often. [12][14][15]

For a programmatic trader, the main catalysts are operational rather than speculative: live score state, official completion status, and any weather or schedule updates from the tournament feed. A bot or conditional order set should watch whether the match is merely suspended, whether it is rescheduled within the seven-day settlement window, and whether a winner is formally recorded; those are the events that change payoff, not short-term score swings alone. As of the current live data, Pegula leading after interruption aligns with a near-certain advancement price, but the only true edge cases are abandonment, a prolonged delay, or an incomplete match beyond the window. [1][8][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.