Contrexeville: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lisa Pigato

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the WTA 125K tennis match between Angela Fita Boluda and Lisa Pigato in Contrexeville, France, played on clay courts on 7 July 2026. The match has already concluded with Lisa Pigato winning 2–0, having taken both sets 4–2 and 5–2. This outcome renders the prediction market’s current 0% YES probability for Angela Fita Boluda advancing factually correct, as the result is settled.

Historically, matches where one player dominates both sets—particularly on clay, where momentum shifts slowly—rarely see comebacks. In this case, Pigato’s head-to-head record against Boluda is 1–0 with 2–0 sets won, reinforcing her superiority in prior encounters[3]. Such patterns are programmatically identifiable via conditional order bots that flag low-probability outcomes once set scores diverge significantly, as seen in live-score APIs like Scores24[2].

Traders should monitor official WTA tournament updates for any post-match appeals or disqualifications, though none are currently indicated. The settlement window ends 14 July 2026, but with a completed match and no tie or delay, the resolution is final. Recent tournament coverage on Tennis.com confirms the match result without ambiguity[4], making further catalysts irrelevant for this specific market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.