Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, m25 pozzuoli: andrea colombo vs filippo pecorini stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Colombo and Filippo Pecorini in the M25 Pozzuoli, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
We track M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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