Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca | 25% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Gentofte: Linea Bajraliu vs Lucia Cortez Llorca Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, itf gentofte: linea bajraliu vs lucia cortez llorca stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Linea Bajraliu and Lucia Cortez Llorca in the ITF Women Gentofte, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market w…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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