Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Match O/U 21.5 | 99% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Match O/U 22.5 | 99% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Match O/U 23.5 | 99% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 1% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez | 0% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf sao paulo: isabella barrera aguirre vs mell elizabeth reasco gonzalez. This market refers to the tennis match between Isabella Barrera Aguirre and Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez in the ITF Women Sao Paulo, originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Trade ITF Sao Paulo: Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Mell Eliz… on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →