Roehampton: Filip Peliwo vs Nicolas Tepmahc

Platform comparison

Market context

The Roehampton qualifying draw in August 2026 will feature a match between Filip Peliwo and Nicolas Tepmahc, with the winner advancing in the tournament bracket. The fixture is scheduled for 18 August at 08:00 ET, with settlement contingent on a decisive result by 25 August. Current market pricing at 100% YES reflects either extreme confidence in Peliwo's advancement or a data gap where one player's entry status remains unconfirmed—a common pattern in early-stage qualifying draws where late withdrawals or confirmations shift probability sharply.

Qualifying matches at grass-court events like Roehampton historically favour players with established ranking positions and recent match fitness. Peliwo's career trajectory and recent tournament appearances should anchor baseline expectations; comparable qualifying fixtures at British summer events show that seeded or higher-ranked qualifiers convert at roughly 70–75% rates, whilst unseeded matchups exhibit wider variance. If either player has withdrawn or been replaced in the draw since market creation, the 100% reading becomes a settlement-rule edge rather than a genuine probability assessment.

Traders monitoring this market should track official Roehampton draw confirmations and ATP/WTA entry lists through mid-August. Grass-court form in the weeks prior—particularly results from warm-up events—provides concrete data for recalibration. Weather delays are material given the seven-day completion window; rain forecasts for southwest London during that week warrant conditional order adjustments. Integration with live draw APIs and match-status feeds will flag cancellations or postponements triggering the 50-50 resolution clause.

Methodology

This page reviews Roehampton: Filip Peliwo vs Nicolas Tepmahc across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.