Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in the Granby Challenger, a match originally slated for 10:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026 but now pending resolution as the settlement window closes in July 2026. The market currently implies a 100% probability that Milavsky advances, reflecting overwhelming confidence in his progression despite the match’s delayed or uncertain status.

Historical precedents in Challenger-level tennis show that 100% crowd-implied probabilities often signal either a withdrawn opponent, a default, or a match that never commenced due to scheduling conflicts rather than a decisive on-court victory. In similar cases, such as the 2024 Granby event where a top-ranked player withdrew before play, markets resolved to the advancing player without a match being played, validating the 100% YES stance when one competitor is absent or disqualified.

Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger tour updates and Granby tournament announcements for confirmation of match completion, opponent withdrawal, or rule-based defaults. A recent Tennis Tonic preview cited Milavsky as the pick to win in three sets with initial odds of 1.50, reinforcing the market’s directional bias [1]. However, the absence of a live score or confirmed result as of 14 July 2026 suggests the outcome may hinge on administrative resolution rather than competitive play [2]. Conditional order strategies should account for the 50-50 resolution clause if the match remains unplayed beyond the seven-day delay threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.