Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 22.5 | 98% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 94% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges | 28% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 6% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges Set 2 Winner | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of canadian open: aleksandar kovacevic vs nuno borges. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Kovacevic and Nuno Borges in the Canadian Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
We track Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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