Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to sion: gerard campana lee vs alex marti pujolras. This market refers to the tennis match between Gerard Campana Lee and Alex Marti Pujolras in the Sion, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gerard Campa…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Sion: Gerard Campana Lee vs Alex Marti Pujolras on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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