Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to grodzisk mazowiecki: alejandro moro canas vs alexander donski. This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Moro Canas and Alexander Donski in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page reviews Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Alexander Donski across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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