Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios | 92% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 83% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 2 Winner | 77% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 3 Winner | 71% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Match O/U 40.5 | 58% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Game Spread +/-6.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Tomas Barrios. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Blockx and Tomas Barrios in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bl…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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