Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is a scheduled ATP-level tennis match in Bunschoten between Gilles-Arnaud Bailly and Filippo Romano, set for 4:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026. Bailly, a 20-year-old Belgian right-hander turned pro in 2022, holds a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 201 achieved in November 2025, with an overall win rate of 56% across 32 recorded matches [1][6]. The market’s current 0% YES crowd-implied probability for Bailly advancing suggests the crowd views him as a near-certain loser, a stance that warrants scrutiny given his junior world champion pedigree and recent ranking climb [9].

Historically, markets assigning near-zero probability to players ranked around 200 who have recently improved their standing often misprice when opponent data is sparse or when the match is an early-round qualifier with limited form. Comparable cases in lower-tier ATP events show that such extreme probabilities can reverse if the higher-ranked opponent suffers a pre-match withdrawal or if surface-specific form (Bailly’s grass win rate is 50%) is overlooked [6]. Programmatically, a trader would script a conditional order to enter only if the probability shifts above 5% within 24 hours of the start time, using live ranking feeds as a dependency.

Key catalysts include the official draw confirmation, any pre-match injury announcements, and the surface type for the Bunschoten event, which is not specified in the market description but will heavily influence Bailly’s 50% grass win rate [6]. Traders should monitor the ATP Tour schedule and player social channels for last-minute updates; for instance, Bailly’s Instagram confirms his active professional status and sponsorship ties that may correlate with fitness [9]. A delay beyond seven days or cancellation triggers a 50-50 settlement, making timing of the official start a critical dependency for conditional order logic.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.