Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the second-round Wimbledon ATP match between world No. 8 Daniil Medvedev and Spain’s 84th-ranked Daniel Merida Aguilar, scheduled to begin at 16:05 Moscow time on 1 July 2026. Medvedev, a two-time Wimbledon semifinalist, enters with clinical momentum after a 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 first-round victory, while Merida Aguilar faces a stark rankings gulf that historically suppresses underdog chances in such matchups[3][5].

Historically, similar second-round clashes at Wimbledon where a top-10 player faces a qualifier ranked below 80 resolve with the higher-ranked player advancing in over 90% of cases, often within three sets, mirroring the initial odds that priced Medvedev at 1.002 against Merida Aguilar at 17.5[1][6]. The current 100% YES crowd-implied probability aligns with these precedents, as Medvedev has previously defeated superior opponents in straight sets at this venue, reinforcing the expectation of a decisive outcome[4].

Traders should monitor live score updates for set completion and any delay announcements beyond the seven-day settlement window, as cancellation or tie scenarios would trigger a 50-50 resolution[2]. Key dependencies include Medvedev’s physical condition post-first-round and official Wimbledon communications on court availability; recent coverage confirms Medvedev’s dominance in his opening match, suggesting minimal risk of early fatigue affecting this contest[5]. Programmatic approaches would flag odds deviations if live data shows extended sets or unforced error spikes, though current indicators point to a straightforward Medvedev advance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.