STRC hits $100 by…

Platform comparison

Market context

STRC has to print a one-minute TradingView high of at least **$100** before the market’s 31 December 2026 cut-off, so the practical question is whether the preferred can trade through par on the chart data that the contract actually uses. Strategy itself has said its corporate objective is for STRC to trade around **$99–$100**, which helps explain why the crowd-implied probability can sit above zero even when the instrument has already shown meaningful downside and recovery swings.[1]

The useful analogue is a range-bound preferred or credit-like security that can gap sharply on sentiment, then mean-revert as financing conditions, Bitcoin moves and issuer actions change the tape. Recent coverage has pointed to STRC recovering from an all-time low, with its price later pushed by a larger cash cushion and steadier Bitcoin conditions, while another report said a credit veteran values it near **$96** and ties a return to **$100** to higher Bitcoin prices.[1][4][14] For a programmatic trader, that means monitoring not just spot levels but intraday wick risk, because this market resolves on the **highest 1-minute candle high** on TradingView, making brief spikes more important than closes.

Catalysts worth tracking are Strategy’s capital allocation updates, any preferred-stock commentary, Bitcoin volatility, and broader changes in cash-reserve perception, since those have been cited as the main drivers of STRC’s recent moves.[1][4][9] If you are automating entries or hedges, the key dependency is whether liquidity can actually carry a one-minute print through $100 on the specified feed; that is a different problem from simply forecasting a year-end close above par.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track STRC hits $100 by… across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.