Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as of June 2026, marking the first operational shutdown of this critical geo-strategic chokepoint in modern history, with Iran maintaining control through asymmetric drone and missile threats to keep oil prices elevated and deterrence strong[3]. This closure has persisted for 100 days following the U.S.-Israeli attack on 28 February, during which Tehran imposed tolls and implied it laid mines, halting a route that once facilitated 20% of global oil and gas supply[2]. Historical data shows transit numbers dropping precipitously from an average of 120 passages to as few as 18 ships daily, with some vessels deliberately turning off AIS to evade detection, creating a volatile baseline for any recovery assessment[1].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically must monitor the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average threshold of 60 arrivals, treating the current 54% YES probability as a conditional bet on a brief reopening window before the July 31 settlement[5]. Key catalysts include the status of peace negotiations, which President Trump has tied to the strait’s reopening as a ceasefire prerequisite, and the potential for Iran to declare safe routes via its Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy map[2]. Recent news confirms a brief reopening on 21 April that closed again the next day, while 25 commercial vessels crossed on 18 June, suggesting intermittent but fragile traffic flows that could be captured by the moving average if sustained[4][6]. Traders should watch for announcements from the U.S. Central Command regarding merchant ship transit counts, as 55 ships transited on a recent Saturday carrying over 17 million barrels, indicating the capacity for rapid volume spikes if security conditions improve[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.