Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 Winner | 51% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen | 6% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of newport: mei yamaguchi vs greet minnen. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Mei Yamaguchi and Greet Minnen in the Newport, originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mei…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen on Kalshi Fees
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