Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Angela Fita Boluda Game Spread +/-4.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification wta: heather watson vs angela fita boluda stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Heather Watson and Angela Fita Boluda in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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