Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of palermo: alessandra mazzola vs dalila spiteri. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Alessandra Mazzola and Dalila Spiteri in the Palermo, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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