Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to national bank open: alina korneeva vs polina kudermetova. This market refers to the tennis match between Alina Korneeva and Polina Kudermetova in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ali…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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