Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Iasi Open, Qualification: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Zhibek Kulambayeva. This market refers to the tennis match between Leyre Romero Gormaz and Zhibek Kulambayeva in the Iasi Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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