New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the WNBA matchup between the New York Liberty and the Seattle Storm, scheduled for 25 June at 10:00 PM ET, where the market resolves to the winner based on the final score including overtime. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the Liberty winning, a stark divergence from moneyline odds showing an 84% implied chance for New York and 17% for Seattle[3]. This 0% figure mirrors historical cases where markets misprice due to liquidity gaps or delayed data feeds, often seen in conditional order books where bots fail to update until a catalyst triggers a re-pricing. Programmatic traders would flag this as an arbitrage opportunity, deploying copy-trading scripts to mirror the 84% probability until the market corrects, rather than accepting the erroneous 0% signal.

Traders must monitor the game’s live status and any postponement announcements, as the market remains open if the match is delayed but resolves 50-50 if cancelled entirely[1]. Recent highlights confirm Seattle took down New York 89-79 in a prior encounter, with Nneka Ogwumike dominating with 26 points and 7 rebounds, fueling a three-game winning streak for the Storm[7]. This form suggests Seattle’s momentum is a key catalyst, yet the 0% probability ignores this trend entirely. A power-user evaluating tooling would set conditional orders to trigger only if the game starts, using live score APIs to validate the 84% implied chance before executing trades. The settlement window ending 26 June at 02:00 UTC requires precise timing for any last-minute adjustments, ensuring no exposure to cancellation risks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.