Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Goal 60+ times | 100% |
| Ref / Referee 10+ times | 100% |
| Shot 10+ times | 100% |
| Save / Saves 5+ times | 100% |
| Weather | 100% |
| Energy | 100% |
| Altitude | 100% |
| Upset | 100% |
| VAR | 100% |
| Extra Time | 100% |
| History | 100% |
| What a Save | 100% |
| Golden Boot | 100% |
| Hattrick / Hat Trick | 100% |
| Messi | 100% |
| Ronaldo | 49% |
| Fan 5+ times | 42% |
| Penalty Shootout | 38% |
| Cleat | 36% |
| Qatar / Russia | 33% |
| Nutmeg / Nutmegs | 29% |
| Crossbar | 14% |
| Golden Goal | 7% |
| Set Piece 5+ times | 3% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for What will the announcers say during Mexico vs England World Cup Match?. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by any member of the official FOX broadcasting team during the English broadcast of the Mexico vs England FIFA World Cup 2026 match on…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade What will the announcers say during Mexico vs Englan… on Kalshi Fees
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