Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli | 100% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 60% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 51% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 45% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 0% |
| Akylbek Uulu to win by KO/TKO? | 0% |
| Osmanli to win by KO/TKO? | 0% |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% |
| Fight won by decision? | 0% |
| Akylbek Uulu in Round 1 | 0% |
| Akylbek Uulu in Round 2 | 0% |
| Akylbek Uulu in Round 3 | 0% |
| Osmanli in Round 1 | 0% |
| Osmanli in Round 2 | 0% |
| Osmanli in Round 3 | 0% |
| Decision or Draw | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, ufc fight night: ilimbek akylbek uulu vs. mehemmedeli osmanli (bantamweight, main card) stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu" if Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mehemmedeli Osmanli at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $615K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade UFC Fight Night: Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedel… on Kalshi Fees
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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