Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mjallby AIF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF (-2.5) | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Allsvenskan fixture between Mjallby AIF and Västerås SK kicks off at 19:00 CEST on 17 July 2026 at Strandvallen, with the match currently showing a 0–0 scoreline as the clock approaches the settlement deadline [2][5]. For a power-user building a copy-trading bot or conditional order script, the 0% YES crowd-implied probability signals a near-certain negative outcome for the specific proposition, likely a rare event such as a shock title win or an extreme statistical anomaly, which historical data suggests is highly improbable in this context [1].
Historically, shock title wins in the Allsvenskan are rare, with Mjallby and Västerås not forming a pair associated with such volatility in recent seasons; the October 2024 encounter between these sides ended 1–2, reflecting standard competitive balance rather than outlier results [6]. When programmatically evaluating this market, the 0% probability aligns with comparable cases where the crowd correctly identifies a proposition as effectively impossible, meaning automated strategies should treat this as a non-tradeable asset or a short-only opportunity if the platform permits, rather than attempting to chase a zero-probability event.
Traders monitoring this market must watch the final minutes of play for any late goals or disciplinary actions that could alter settlement, though the current 0–0 status at kick-off time suggests the outcome is already locked [4]. No recent announcements or schedule dependencies have shifted the probability, as the fixture status remains "Not Started" until the whistle blows, and the absence of external catalysts means the market will settle strictly on the match result [4]. For utility-focused tools, the lack of moving catalysts confirms that the 0% probability is a static signal, requiring no dynamic re-weighting in algorithmic models.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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