World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the count of penalty kicks missed or saved during regular, stoppage, or extra time at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, excluding shootout attempts. With a current crowd-implied probability of just 2% for “Yes” at the listed threshold, the market suggests the tournament is unlikely to produce enough non-goal penalties to meet the condition. Programmatically, a trader would model this by ingesting historical penalty data from 1930 to 2018, filtering for missed or saved outcomes outside shootouts, and comparing the distribution against the 2026 schedule to assess tail risk [4].

Historically, missed penalties in World Cup matches (excluding shootouts) are rare; since 1966, only 33 such misses have been recorded, with Lionel Messi holding the top spot at three [7]. The 1994 final remains the most famous example, where Roberto Baggio’s miss decided the match between Brazil and Italy [5][9]. Given that the 2026 threshold likely sits near or above this historical average, the 2% probability aligns with the low frequency of such events in past tournaments. A script evaluating this would weight the 2026 fixture list against the 0.8–1.2 average missed penalties per tournament observed in the dataset [4].

Traders should monitor official match reports for penalty decisions, particularly in high-stakes knockout games where pressure increases miss likelihood. Key catalysts include team line-ups, referee appointments, and injury updates for key strikers, as these directly influence penalty conversion rates. Recent coverage from BBC Sport highlights that only two players—Messi and Luka Modrić—have scored penalties in three different World Cup shootouts, underscoring the elite consistency required to avoid misses [6]. A conditional order strategy would trigger on live penalty announcements, adjusting exposure based on whether the kick occurs in regular time or extra time, as only those count [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.