Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Boys Association are due to host Club Alianza Lima in Peru Liga 1, with the market settling on the scheduled kick-off window rather than the final scoreline. The crowd-implied 8% YES price sits well below mainstream pre-match pricing, where Alianza Lima were listed as clear away favourites and Sport Boys as outsiders, making the market read as a low-probability visitor win rather than a coin-flip fixture.[1][2][7]

For historical framing, comparable odds feeds around this match have consistently leaned towards a narrow Alianza advantage, with bookmaker snapshots showing the away side around 1.9–2.0 in decimal terms and Sport Boys nearer 3.4–4.4.[4][6][8] That profile usually maps to a market that is sensitive to lineup news and early scoring, because a favourite priced this strongly can still land as a one-goal win, a draw, or an upset without changing the underlying read that the visitors are more likely to control the game.[1][6][17]

Programmatically, traders would typically watch confirmed line-ups, travel and squad rotation, and any late fixture or broadcast changes before the 01:00 UTC settlement cut-off. The most actionable inputs are official team sheets, league schedule updates, and live odds drift in the final hour, because markets on strong away favourites can reprice quickly if key starters are rested or if the market anticipates a low-tempo match; current data sources also show expectations for relatively modest scoring, which can matter for conditional orders tied to halftime or first-goal paths.[1][3][5][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.