Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 91% |
| Team A | 50% |
| Team B | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 27% |
| Orlando Magic | 7% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 5% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 5% |
| Miami Heat | 5% |
| Indiana Pacers | 3% |
| Detroit Pistons | 2% |
| Washington Wizards | 2% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 1% |
| Denver Nuggets | 1% |
| LA Clippers | 1% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 1% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 1% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 1% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 1% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 1% |
| Phoenix Suns | 1% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 1% |
| Toronto Raptors | 1% |
| Utah Jazz | 1% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 0% |
| Boston Celtics | 0% |
| Chicago Bulls | 0% |
| Houston Rockets | 0% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 0% |
| New York Knicks | 0% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 0% |
| Sacramento Kings | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, nba free agency: draymond green next team stands at 91% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to the next team Draymond Green officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Draymond Green does not officially join a new team by October 31, 20…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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