Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets in a crucial MLB game on Saturday, 27 June at 4:10PM ET, with the Mets favoured by -136 on the moneyline and the Phillies priced at +116[1]. The crowd-implied probability of 17% for a Phillies win suggests a significant underestimation of their recent form, particularly given they won the last meeting between these sides on 26 June with a 2–1 scoreline[6]. Historically, back-to-back games between these rivals often see the winner of the first contest carry momentum, yet the market has priced the Phillies as a distant outsider despite their victory in the preceding night’s contest[6].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would monitor pitcher usage logs and lineup confirmations released two hours before game time, as late bullpen changes can drastically shift win probabilities[7]. Recent analysis from Action Network highlights the Over 8.5 as the strongest bet, indicating both teams possess offensive firepower that could influence the final outcome[1]. Traders should watch for any in-game injury reports or weather updates, as the Mets are currently attempting to end a home slide, adding psychological pressure that conditional order algorithms might exploit[7]. The settlement window closing on 4 July 2026 allows ample time for postponed games to be resolved, ensuring no premature closure if delays occur.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.