Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB contest pits the Houston Astros against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Saturday, 27 June, with the game scheduled to begin at 1:10 PM ET. The market currently implies a 38% probability that the Astros will secure the win, a figure that sits notably below the consensus win probability of 56.9% assigned by numberFire, which favours the Tigers[1]. This divergence mirrors historical patterns where home-field favourites with superior run-line odds often outperform lower implied probabilities, particularly when the visiting team ranks lower in offensive metrics like OPS and total runs scored[2].

For a power-user evaluating conditional order tools, the primary catalysts to monitor are the final starting lineups and any late-injury updates, as the Tigers’ offensive ranking (22nd in OPS) contrasts sharply with the Astros’ 13th-place standing, yet the betting market still heavily favours the home side[2]. Recent analysis from FanDuel confirms the Tigers are favoured by 1.5 runs on the runline, with Houston priced at -205 to cover, suggesting the market expects a narrow home victory[1]. Traders should watch for the official pitching announcements, as the over/under is set at 8.5 runs, a threshold that could swing conditional orders if the starting pitchers are revealed as high-contact or high-strikeout types[1]. Programmatically, one would set a conditional buy order for the Astros only if the implied probability drops below 35% or if the starting pitcher for the Tigers is confirmed as a high-walk rate, exploiting the discrepancy between the 38% market price and the 56.9% predictive model[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.