How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

76% odds: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Name: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Start: 2026-07-19T13:04:15.854Z
End: 2026-08-01T23:10:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	76%	24%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Place a position →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	76%	24%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Place a position →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Place a position →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Place a position →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	76%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	64%
O/U 7.5	57%
O/U 8.5	51%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	51%
NRFI	49%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox	48%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	39%
O/U 9.5	39%
Spread -1.5	36%
Spread -1.5	35%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	33%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	27%
Spread -2.5	27%
Spread -2.5	26%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	25%
Extra Innings	10%

Market context

Market consensus: 76% chance of houston astros vs. chicago white sox. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for July 25 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros w…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 76% for "Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 76% Other 24%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $150K.

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox on Kalshi Fees

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Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox on Kalshi Fees

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