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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Five-platform snapshot of "Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 71% O/U 6.5 60% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 53% O/U 7.5 47% Volume: $68K Liquidity: $989K Closes: 31 Jul 2026
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 71% 29% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 71% 29% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.571%
O/U 6.560%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.553%
O/U 7.547%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays46%
NRFI46%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.541%
O/U 8.539%
Spread -1.536%
Spread -1.534%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.530%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.529%
Spread -2.525%
Spread -2.524%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.523%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.521%
Extra Innings11%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 71% YES probability for Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays. In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for July 24 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the g…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 71% for "Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 71% Other 29%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $68K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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