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Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Five-platform snapshot of "Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 74% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 59% Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox 56% O/U 7.5 52% Volume: $112K Liquidity: $924K Closes: 14 Aug 2026
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.574%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.559%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox56%
O/U 7.552%
NRFI49%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.546%
Spread -1.545%
O/U 8.544%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.534%
O/U 9.534%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.533%
Spread -2.532%
Spread -1.527%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.526%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.525%
Spread -2.518%
Extra Innings8%

Market context

Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox — current market-implied probability: 74%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for August 7 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win t…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 74% for "Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 74% Other 26%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $112K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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