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LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 83% Game 1 Winner 70% Game 2 Winner 70% Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) 70% Volume: $107K Liquidity: $389K Closes: 26 Sept 2026
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LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 83% 17% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 83% 17% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner83%
Game 1 Winner70%
Game 2 Winner70%
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)70%
Game 3 Winner69%
Game 4 Winner62%
O/U 3.5 Games61%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?58%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?54%
Odd/Even Total Kills53%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
Odd/Even Total Kills47%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?41%
Game Handicap: FUR (-2.5) vs RED Canids (+2.5)39%
First Blood in Game 1?36%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games25%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: furia esports vs red canids (bo5) - cblol playoffs stands at 83% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower Bracket Semifinal match between FURIA Esports and RED Canids in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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