Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of itf bacau: radu mihai papoe vs stefan adrian andreescu. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Radu Mihai Papoe and Stefan Adrian Andreescu in the ITF Men Bacau, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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