Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 91% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 21.5 | 71% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 2 Winner | 32% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova Set 1 Winner | 28% |
| US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova | 24% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to us open wta: katie volynets vs linda noskova. This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Volynets and Linda Noskova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katie Volynets…
Methodology
We track US Open WTA: Katie Volynets vs Linda Noskova across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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