Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela | 0% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Noma Noha Akugue vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to bastad: noma noha akugue vs irene burillo escorihuela. This market refers to the tennis match between Noma Noha Akugue and Irene Burillo Escorihuela in the Bastad, originally scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Noma Noha…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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