Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a WNBA match scheduled for 2:00pm ET on 27 June 2026 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, where the Phoenix Mercury face the Toronto Tempo. The market resolves to the winner based on the final score, including any overtime periods, with a 50-50 split if the game is cancelled entirely without a make-up.

Historical precedents for 0% crowd-implied probabilities in sports markets typically signal either a confirmed team absence or a catastrophic roster collapse before the event. In this specific case, the probability likely reflects the one-game suspension of Alyssa Thomas, the Mercury’s second-leading scorer and league assist leader, which severely diminishes their win chance[7]. Programmatic traders would flag this dependency as a hard filter, treating the suspension as a binary condition that invalidates standard win-probability models for the Mercury.

Key catalysts to monitor include official WNBA roster announcements confirming Thomas’s return status and any schedule changes regarding the game’s start time. Recent boxscore data shows Thomas’s absence directly contributed to a previous 82-80 loss, reinforcing the impact of her suspension on team performance[4]. Traders building conditional orders should watch for live updates from the Athletic or ESPN confirming the final roster composition before the settlement window closes[5][3]. Any delay in the game would keep the market open, but a full cancellation without a make-up would resolve the bet at 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.