Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Match Winner | 93% |
| Map 2 Winner | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 73% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 53% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-7.5) vs BBL Esports (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-6.5) vs BBL Esports (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-9.5) vs BBL Esports (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-8.5) vs BBL Esports (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 34% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: nongshim redforce vs bbl esports (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant 3rd place decider match between Nongshim RedForce and BBL Esports in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 7:00AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs BBL Esports (BO3) - E… on Kalshi Fees
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