Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 65% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 60% |
| Match Winner | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 1 Winner | 36% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 36% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.5) | 24% |
Market context
The Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins prediction market currently prices this outcome at 65% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between Gentle Mates and Eintracht Frankfurt in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 12 at 11:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) … on Kalshi Fees
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