Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Both Teams to Score | 71% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 53% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-1.5) | 14% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-1.5) | 8% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-2.5) | 3% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Hammarby Fotboll’s Europa League qualifier against RSC Anderlecht is the underlying event, with the “More Markets” contract settling on whether ancillary market types are offered around the match rather than the match result itself. For a power-user, the practical read is that the 8% crowd price implies a low expectation that additional lines will be listed or become tradable before the settlement window closes, so a programmatic approach would usually treat it as a binary availability check tied to feed state, not to on-pitch score dynamics.[1]
Comparable head-to-head data is thin, which is exactly why this sort of market often trades off venue, timing, and market-creation behaviour rather than pure football quality. One available H2H feed shows the pairing as a high-scoring qualifying matchup profile, including a 65% rate for Anderlecht-and-over-2.5 in its sample, but that is more useful as context for liquidity and related props than for predicting whether the platform will publish more markets.[2] In practice, bots and conditional orders would watch for whether the exchange expands the slate after lineups, after official competition updates, or after early trading on the main match market shifts the operator’s incentive to list derivatives.[1][2]
The main catalysts are operational: official team sheets, competition scheduling, and any change in the match page or market catalogue before the 17:00Z settlement deadline. If a trader is automating this, the cleanest trigger is not the result feed but the appearance of new selectable sub-markets on the event record, because that is the state change that resolves the contract.[1]
Methodology
We track Hammarby Fotboll vs. RSC Anderlecht - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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