Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beşiktaş JK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beşiktaş JK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 96% |
| O/U 1.5 | 85% |
| Beşiktaş JK O/U 1.5 | 75% |
| Beşiktaş JK (-1.5) | 59% |
| O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 52% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Beşiktaş JK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Beşiktaş JK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Beşiktaş JK O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score | 38% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Beşiktaş JK (-2.5) | 30% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Beşiktaş JK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Beşiktaş JK will face FC Hradec Králové in a UEFA Europa League qualifying round match on 13 August at 1:00 PM ET. The fixture is a two-legged tie, with this encounter forming the first leg. Settlement of any "more markets" contract depends on whether additional betting or trading instruments become available for this specific match before the 17:00 UTC deadline on match day.
Historical precedent suggests that secondary markets proliferate around high-profile European fixtures, particularly when the first leg carries asymmetric information value. Turkish Super Lig sides competing in Europa League qualifiers have generated substantial trading volume in derivative contracts—goal-scorer props, corner totals, and conditional orders tied to first-half outcomes. The 59% probability reflects confidence that Kalshi or peer platforms will expand their offering, though the timing remains contingent on demand signals and regulatory clearance. Comparable August qualifying matches have typically seen market expansion within 48 hours of kickoff.
Traders monitoring this contract should track team news releases and official UEFA scheduling confirmations. Beşiktaş's squad depth and injury status—particularly among attacking players—will influence whether sportsbooks and prediction platforms justify the operational cost of launching additional instruments. Czech media coverage of Hradec Králové's preparation and any late tactical announcements could shift expectations around market breadth. Programmatically, conditional order logic should account for the possibility that "more markets" resolves YES if even a single new contract (such as a spread or player prop) launches before settlement, making this a useful hedge for traders holding correlated positions on the match outcome itself.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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