Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5) | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris (-1.5) | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
GNK Dinamo Zagreb and FK Kauno Žalgiris are scheduled to play in Champions League qualifying in Zagreb, with the market window closing at kick-off. A **100% Yes** crowd price on “more markets” is easy to read mechanically: the event already exists on the fixture slate, the live score pages are carrying the match, and the sportsbook-style listings show a standard qualifying tie rather than a cancellation risk.[1][2][12]
For comparable cases, traders usually treat this kind of market as a *fixture-completion and market-availability* problem rather than a pure football handicap. Dinamo’s recent records are stronger on most public stat feeds, and there is no prior head-to-head history for the pair, so the relevant precedent is not rivalry data but whether the match proceeds normally and generates a full market set at settlement.[4][5][6] In a programme-driven workflow, that means monitoring event status, market creation timestamps, and any suspension flags rather than trying to price the scoreline itself.
The practical catalysts are late team news, referee or venue changes, and any knock-on effect from the broader UEFA schedule, because those are the usual reasons a secondary market can fail to appear or stay open. BBC, Sky Sports, and Flashscore were all carrying the fixture as a live match on 4 August, which is the key confirmation traders would use in an automated check before the settlement window closes.[1][2][12] For copy-trading or conditional-order setups, the useful trigger is not who scores first but whether the exchange has published the linked derivative markets cleanly and kept the event in a settled state.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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