Mjallby AIF vs. Vasteraas SK

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming Allsvenskan fixture pits Mjallby AIF against Vasteras SK at Mjallby’s home ground on Friday, 17 July 2026, with data models favouring a home win at 48.84% probability against a 28.52% chance for Vasteras and a 22.68% draw likelihood[1]. The most probable scoreline is a 2-1 home victory, while Vasteras’s likeliest win is 1-2 and the top draw is 1-1[1].

Historically, Mjallby’s stable home attacking form and Vasteras’s poor away record—conceding frequently on the road—create a clear structural edge for the hosts, even though Vasteras recently achieved an away upset against Malmo[3]. This pattern mirrors prior Allsvenskan rounds where home advantage and defensive frailties away dictated outcomes, suggesting the current 0% crowd-implied YES probability is an outlier relative to fundamental performance metrics[3].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late injury news, as Vasteras’s weak away defence is a key dependency for Mjallby’s scoring probability[3]. The match’s 49% overall goal probability indicates an open contest, meaning conditional orders on total goals or first-half outcomes could be programmatically layered once the odds shift closer to kickoff[3]. No major announcements have been issued yet, but the 16th-round scheduling confirms the fixture is fixed with no known delays[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.