Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg (-1.5) | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Elfsborg and Västerås SK are scheduled to meet in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 14 August at 13:00 ET. The market is asking whether additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture—a common occurrence for top-tier league matches in Scandinavia, where broadcasters and odds operators typically expand market depth for weekend fixtures. Settlement hinges on whether supplementary markets (such as corner counts, card totals, or player-specific props) appear before kick-off.
The 100% implied probability reflects a near-certainty that secondary markets will materialise. Historical precedent supports this: Allsvenskan fixtures involving established clubs routinely attract expanded market offerings from major Nordic and European operators. Comparable fixtures from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that markets proliferate once team sheets are confirmed and pre-match liquidity pools form. The only material risk to settlement would be a last-minute fixture cancellation or postponement, an event with negligible historical frequency for Allsvenskan matches.
For programmatic traders, the key dependency is fixture confirmation and official team announcements, typically released 24–48 hours before kick-off. Monitor official Allsvenskan communications and major sportsbook feeds for market-opening signals. Conditional order logic should trigger on fixture-confirmation events rather than calendar dates alone, since administrative delays occasionally shift announcement timings. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, allowing a four-hour window post-kick-off to capture any late-published markets before resolution.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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