Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Orgryte IS (-1.5) | 100% |
| Orgryte IS (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AIK (-1.5) | 0% |
| AIK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AIK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AIK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AIK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AIK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AIK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AIK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AIK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
AIK meet Orgryte IS in the Allsvenskan at Strawberry Arena, with the market here focused on any **additional propositions** around the game rather than the 90-minute result itself. A 0% YES price implies the crowd is treating these side markets as either unavailable, already exhausted, or too unlikely to resolve in a way that the contract recognises, which is the kind of setup power users often flag in bots or conditional-order scans because the actionable edge is usually in *settlement mechanics*, not match strength.[1][2][17]
For framing, the wider match context is lopsided but not decisive on its own: AIK are higher in the table, while Orgryte are lower and have poorer recent output, including weaker goal numbers and a negative goal difference in the available stat feeds.[2][3][10] Comparable Allsvenskan fixtures with a clear favourite often produce low-interest “more markets” unless the exchange or platform posts a specific sub-market with a defined trigger, so programmatic readers should check whether the contract list has been expanded, delisted, or left with no qualifying outcome before the settlement window closes.[2][9][17]
The main catalysts are operational rather than tactical: confirmed kick-off, line-up publication, any postponement or abandonment risk, and whether the platform has actually listed the “more markets” contract as live in time for settlement.[1][4][17] At the time of the latest match listings, the fixture was scheduled for 14:30 UTC at Strawberry Arena and shown as not started on third-party feeds, so any bot or copy-trading workflow should be watching for status changes, market creation, and final settlement notes rather than assuming the presence of a tradable yes/no outcome.[1][2][4]
Methodology
We track AIK vs. Orgryte IS - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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