Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Tigre (-1.5) | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Tigre (-2.5) | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
CA Tigre’s Copa Sudamericana tie with Montevideo City Torque is a small, odds-driven football event where the “more markets” contract is likely to be decided by how many auxiliary lines get posted and whether the bookkeeping layer on the exchange stays active through kick-off and settlement. The crowd-implied 0% YES reading suggests traders are currently assigning almost no weight to the market meeting its threshold, which is consistent with a sparse, low-liquidity setup rather than a strong directional football view.
For context, public pricing on the match itself has Tigre as a modest home favourite, with 1X2 odds around 1.78 to 1.86 for Tigre, roughly 3.1 to 3.4 for the draw, and 4.5 to 5.3 for Torque.[1][4][7][9] That matters because “more markets” products typically expand when a match attracts broader menu coverage — moneyline, totals, Asian handicap, team totals, both-teams-to-score, and first-half lines — and this fixture already shows that structure in adjacent markets on ESPN, including main result, totals, first-half pricing, and team-goal props.[2] For a programmatic approach, a trader would usually monitor whether the market count rises above the contract’s threshold by polling the event feed and comparing available market types to a pre-set rule set, rather than inferring from the match odds alone.
The practical catalysts are administrative, not dramatic: market creation timing, whether the sportsbook/exchange publishes full pre-match props, and any last-minute suspension of lines near the 22:00Z settlement window.[2][15] If a bot or conditional order system is used, the key dependency is the final live market inventory at the time the contract closes, because even an unchanged football price can still settle differently if extra derivatives are added or removed before cutoff.
Methodology
This page reviews CA Tigre vs. Montevideo City Torque - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
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