Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Caracas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| Caracas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| Caracas FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5) | 0% |
| Caracas FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Independiente Santa Fe meet Caracas FC in the Copa Sudamericana play-off, with the match listed for 24 July 2026 at 00:30 UTC, which corresponds to the 8:30 PM ET kickoff in Bogotá.[2][4] For a trader using copy-trading, scripted alerts, or conditional orders, that timing matters because any “more markets” settlement tied to line-ups, broadcast feeds, or match completion will usually move as soon as official team sheets and live coverage are published rather than at the scheduled start alone.[1][2][3]
A **100% YES** crowd price means the market is already treating the event as fully resolved in one direction, so the practical question is less about direction and more about whether the contract is describing a confirmed fixture, a live-match state, or an ancillary market still pending data input. Comparable football listings for Sudamericana ties on major scoreboards and match trackers often lock in the fixture details well before kick-off, while the actual in-play catalogue of “more markets” depends on whether the operator has posted the relevant props and whether the match proceeds normally.[2][3][4] That makes programmatic monitoring useful: a bot can watch the fixture page, line-up release, and any postponement or cancellation notices, then reconcile them against the settlement window ending at 00:30 UTC on 24 July.[2][3]
The main catalysts to watch are official team announcements, late schedule changes, and whether the match page stays synchronised across live-score and preview providers. O Tempo’s minute-by-minute coverage shows the fixture was tracked as a live event on matchday, while score platforms and preview pages kept the same kick-off time and competition context, which is the kind of cross-source consistency traders use to confirm that a market is still anchored to the intended game rather than an abandoned or rescheduled slate.[1][2][3][4]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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